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1InternationalTrendsinEnvironmentalRegulationsforVehiclesSantiago,ChileMay13,2008MichaelP.WalshInternationalConsultantChairman,BoardofDirec

tors,InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationMajorGlobalTrends•EnvironmentalConcernsIncreasing–Particles–GlobalWarming•CleanerandCleanerTechnol

ogiesEnteringMarketplace–HeavyDutyDieselVehicles–PassengerCars–Motorcycles•CleanerFuelsIncreasinglyCritical–Sulf

urLevelsApproachingZero–LeadAlmostGone;MMTIncreasingConcern19301940195019601970198019902000CalendarYear0200400600800100012

00MillionsMotorcyclesCommercialVehiclesCarsWorldMotorVehiclePopulationGrowthofVehiclePopulationinShanghai,1

988-20024E:\ChanghongCHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xlsMostVehiclesAreInCities5OneResult:SeriousHealthConcerns•WHOConcludes~800,000PrematureDeat

hsEachYearFromUrbanPM•NumerousStudiesConsistentlyLinkPMWithPrematureDeaths,HospitalAdmissions,AsthmaAtt

acks,Etc.•NoEvidenceofaThreshold•Ozone,NO2,VariousToxicsAlsoSeriousHealthConcernsSlide6Source:Cohenetal,2005PM10inMajorcities9%

-8%24%-4%-17%EnergyIndustriesManufacturingIndustriesandConstructionTransportationOtherSectorsFugitiveEmissions-20%-10%0%10%20%3

0%Change1990-2004(%)Annex1PartyGreenhouseGasEmissionsintheEnergySector•EnergyDemandintheTransportSector:AnnualAvera

geGrowthRate(%)byRegion2004-2030In2004,94%oftransportenergybasedonfossiloil.Thesharewillonlyslightlydecreaseto9

3%in2030.Source:IEAWEO20060123456Growth(%p.a.)BackgroundCarbonDioxideisNotTheWholeStory!Transportationsectorprioriti

es1064435534465~60442030mitigationpotential2030BAUemissionsIndustryBuildingsTransportForestryAgriculture/waste/otherPowerTar

getUnknownmitigation“Known”mitigation~25>303keyinterventions•Fuel-efficient,lowEmittingcars•Low-carbonfuels•Reducedvehicle-milestraveledthrou

ghcongestionpricing,BusRapidTransit,etc.Slide11202530354045505520022004200620082010201220142016201820202022

MILESPERGALLON(AllcountriesconvertedtoCAFEtestUNITEDSTATESEUROPEJAPANAUSTRALIACANADACHINACALIFORNIAS.KOREAJAPANUNITEDSTATESEUR

OPEANUNIONCHINAAUSTRALIACANADAS.KOREACALIFORNIA+16STATESDottedline:ProposedorcontestedSolidlines:EnactedStandardizedCo

mparisonofInternationalFuelEconomyandGHGStandards19731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620090123

45Grams/KilometerNOxEmissionsStandardsUSGasolineUSDieselEUGasolineEUDieselEUandUSPassengerCarExhaustEmiss

ionsStandardsTechnologyCapableofCleaningVehicleEmissionsHasImprovedDramaticallyinthePast30-40YearsTheThree-

wayCatalyticConverter:AFamiliarTechnologyRe-EngineeredforHighPerformanceinClose-coupledandUnderfloorApplications•Layeredwashcoatarchitecturesandsupp

ortmaterialswithhighthermalstability•IntegratedHCadsorptionfunctions•Mountingmaterialswithimproveddurability•Highcelldensityceramicorm

etallicsubstrates•InsulationschemesforheatmanagementMaximumEmissionsPerformanceIsOnlyAchievedWithNearZeroSulfurFuelDieselPart

iculateFiltersTrappedPMCellPlugsExhaust(PM,CO,HC)EnterCeramicHoneycombWallExhaust(CO2,H2O)OutIssuestobalance:

•sulfateformation•regenerationandbackpressure•FuelEconomyReductions:•-80to95%PM•-80-100%HC,CO•-80%+toxinsH

owTheTrapFunctionsTypicalengineexhaustmassandnumberweightedsizedistributionsshownwithalveolardeposition00.020.040.060.080.10.12

0.140.160.180.20.0010.0100.1001.00010.000Diameter(m)NormalizedConcentration,dC/Ctotal/dlogDp00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70

.80.91AlveolarDepositionFractionMassWeightingNumberWeightingAlveolarDepositionFractionFineParticlesDp<2.5mUltrafineParticlesDp<100nmN

anoparticlesDp<50nmNucleiModeAccumulationModeCoarseModePM10Dp<10mFractionaldepositionofparticlewithdensityof1g/umfromnongrey..Gasolineand

LPGG-DIConventionalDieselComparisonofParticleEmissionsfromSMPS.7:AllVehiclesandFuels-50kph1.00E+061.00E+071.00E+081.00E+091.00E+101.00E+111.0

0E+121.00E+131101001000logscale[Particles/km]ConventionalDieselsDirectInjectionGasolineTrapEquippedDieselsMPIandLPGGasolin

e18CurrentDPFApplicationsMillionsofcarsareequippedwithDPFaroundworldAirTankUreaTankCatalystInputTemperatureCatalyst

OutputTemperatureEngineSCRConnectorECMDosingUnitJ1939(Public)AirSolenoidUreaSensorSCRControlExhaustGasProcess

orSCRSolutionSystemArchitecture20EmissionscontrolsystemforEuroVIOxidationcatalyst(DOC),catalyst-basedparticulatefil

terandurea-SCRwithammoniaslipcatalyst(ASC).MixerSCR+ASCDOC(optional)NOxsensorNOxsensorCalifornia’sZEVHistory01000002000003

0000040000050000060000019901998199920012002200320042005ATPZEVsPZEVsZEVRegulationPZEVscreatedCaFCPStartedATPZEVsCreatedZEVRegImplementationFCBus

eson-roadZEV-Status▪Goals:–DrivedevelopmentofZEVs–SupportsbridgingtechnologieslikeHybrids–Maximizesairquali

tybenefitswithPZEVs▪Status–PZEVsmarketedbyallautomakerssubjecttotheregulation,425,000PZEVssoldtodate–Hybridsv

erysuccessfulinthemarketplace,70,000ATPZEVhybridssoldtodate–100FuelcellvehiclesbeingplacedinCaliforniainrealwo

rlddemonstrationfleetsHondaCivicHybridATPZEVNear-ZeroEmissionVehiclesLifetimeemissions(VOC+NOx)PartialZeroEmissionsVehicles(PZEVs)▪Currently20mode

lsforsale,including4HEVs▪250,000annualsales(14%)in2005▪1,000,000salesby2015(55%)ModelYearVOC+NOx(kg)Reduction19701900--2

005‘PZEV’899.6%Near-ZeroEmissionVehicles•BMW325i•ChryslerSebring•FordFocus•FordFusion•FordEscapeHEV•Hond

aAccord•HondaCivicHEV•HondainsightHEV•HyundaiElantra•KiaSpectra•Mazda3•Mazda6•MitsubishiGalant•NissanAltima•NissanSentra•SubaruOutback•ToyotaCamry•

ToyotaPriusHEV•VWJetta•VolvoS40FleetDemonstrations▪100Fuelcelllightdutyvehiclestodate▪Upto7Fuelcellbuses▪Testing,outreach,datacollectio

n,validationZEVTechnologyReview-CARBPlugInHybridsAreEmergingElectricbikesinChina,P.R.•ChinaProducedApproxi

mately15MillionElectricbikesin2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenlargelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelledscoote

rsandmotorcycles,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorChinesecitiesSources:Cherry,2006;Weinert,2006Which

CountriesAreGettingCleanTechnologies?•CleanFuels•StringentStandardsIncludingAdvancedTechnologyMandates•StrongIncentives

–Economic–OtherMyGlobalVisionFor2015•EveryNewDieselHasPMFilter&LowNOx•GasolineVehiclesApproachingZEROEmissions•Hybri

dTechnologies(IncludingPlugInHybrids)AreMature,WidespreadTechnology•SmallBatteryElectricVehicles(City)VehiclesWidelyUse

d•FuelCellVehicleNumbersIncreasingWhatIsTheSituationTodayinSantiago•GoodFuelQuality<50PPMSulfurButNotTakingAdvantageofThisToIntroduceDies

elFiltersWidely–ShouldBeHighestPriority•MuchCleanerGasolineVehiclesAreFeasible,EspeciallyWithLowSin2009•IncentivesForHybrid

sCouldBeExpandedAShortTermPlanForSantiago•TightenRequirementsSufficientlyToRequirePMFiltersonNewDieselCarsandBuses•LowerDi

eselSulfurto10/15PPM•IntroduceEuro5orTier2Bin5forAllNewCarsandLightTrucks•IntroduceEuro3ForMotorcycles•ImplementASMBasedCe

ntralizedI/MForAllLightDutyVehiclesITALYGREECEBULGARIAROMANIAHUNGARYSERBIAAUSTRIAFRANCESPAINPORTUGALGERMANYPOLANDSLOVAKIACZECHREPUBLICSWITZ

ERLANDNETHERLANDSBELGIUMCROATIASLOVENIABOSNIAUNITEDKINGDOMIRELANDNORWAYSWEDENFINLANDICELANDALBANIAMACEDONIADE

NMARKLUXEMBOURGANDORRAMALTAMONACOEuropeEuropeOverview•2007Developments–LightDutyEuro5&6Adopted(TooSlowBut#Added)–Truck&BusEuroVIProposedByCommissi

onEuro42005Euro52009/10Euro62014/15USTier2AvgARBSULEV00.050.10.150.20.250.3Grams/KmGasolineNOxDieselNOxDieselPMx10EUandUSLightDutyGasolin

eandEUandUSLightDutyGasolineandDieselVehicleStandardsDieselVehicleStandardsEuro5+andEuro6WillInclude6X1011/kmParticleNumberLimitCompa

risonofNOxandPMregulationsforHDdieselvehicleamongJapan,USAandEurope0.00.10.20.30246NOxg/kWhPMg/kWh1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JA

PAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalue0.00.10.20.30246NOxg

/kWhPMg/kWh1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JAPAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalueUnit

edStatesUnitedStatesReconcilingtheDieselEngineWiththeEnvironment:AComprehensiveApproachTier2Light-duty(1999)2007/2010Heavy-du

ty(2001)Tier4diesel(2004)CommonAspects--•Systemsapproach–fuelchangeenablescleantechnologies•Largeenvironmentalbenefits•Res

ponsivetoneedsofStatestomeetairqualitygoals•CollaborativeprocessHighwayNonroadLocomotive/Marine*Thisfigureisintendedtoillustratethe

timelineforthefinalhighwayandnonroaddieselfuelsulfurcontrolprograms.Itisnotdrawntoexactscale.Referto40CFRPart80forspecificprog

ramdates.AllDiesel~3400ppmHighwayDiesel500ppmAllOff-HighwayDiesel~3400ppm>80%15ppm<20%500ppmAllHighway15ppm10/199306/200601/2010Highway+N

onroadDieselFuelSulfurSpecs*NR,L&MDiesel500ppmNR15ppm6/20076/2010HWYNRL&M500ppm6/2014HHF~3400ppmSmall

15ppm6/2012Small&Credit500ppmSmall&Credit~3400HHF~3400ppmL&M15ppmover3million40,000lostworkdayshospitaladmissionschronicbronchitisprematurede

athsnumberpreventedannually(in2030)010,00020,00030,000HealthBenefitsAreTremendous!TheBenefitsFarOutweighTheCosts40,000c

ostbenefitTotalCost:$11billionTotalBenefits:$175billion020406080100Tier4Nonroad2007Heavy-dutyHighwayTier2Light-dutyHighway$BillionAnnuallyin203030%

PZEV“10%”Mandate42%byvolume2%ATPZEV11%~1%ZEVZEVProgram(2012–2014)CurrentZEVProgramZEVProgramZEVTechnologyReview-CARBChinaHARBINSHENYANGTI

ANJIN躌躆QILANZHOUXI碅NSHANGHAIWUHANCHENGDUGUANGZHOULHASABEIJINGStatusofAirQualityPM10levelsinMajorChineseCities(1999–2005)05010015

02002501999200020012002200320042005concentrationsinµg/m3BeijingGuangzhouGuiyangJinanLuoyangShanghaiShijazhuangTianjinUrumqiWu

hanXi’anNAAQSClassIIPM10limit=100µg/m3China’sGDP789101112199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007YearGDPannualgrowth%3.5trillionUS$Urbaniza

tionRateinChina303234363840424446199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007YearUrbanPopulationRatio:%200millionpeoplemovedtocitiessince1996

NewVehicleSalesAreBoomingNo.2largestautomarket13579199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007MillionsCrudeoilprod’n

&consum’n>40%oilimportdependence150200250300350199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007MillionTonsProductionConsumptionM

otorVehicleGrowthForecast200520082015202520352-W55.378.1146.7193.2130.43-W2.01.51.70.30.0HCV10.413.919.929.337.5LCV9.413

.122.837.752.9Car,SUV12.923.456.8115.8192.790.0130.0248.0376.4413.6ClassGrandTotal012310100200300400500MillionVehicles9xby20253.5xby2025VehiclePopul

ationProjectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.comChinaOverview•2007Developments–Euro3(EuroIII)StandardsIntroducedNationally–

Euro4(IV)AdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–50PPMSulfurAdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–MMTMaximumReducedFrom18

to16Nationallyandto6inBeijing–SEPANowMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection•LookingAhead–ContinueCleanFuelsPu

sh–IntroduceEuro4(IV)Nationally–AccelerateinOtherCities(Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,)–ComplianceProgram–RetrofitsElectricbikesinChina

,P.R.•ElectricbikesinChinaincreasedfromonly40,000in1998to10millionin2005to~15in2007•Salesincreasedfromabout7.5millionunitsinin2004to10millionunits

in2005to~15in2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenlargelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelledscootersandmotorcycl

es,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorChinesecities•Themostproblematicissuewithelectricbikesistheuseofleadacidbatteriesthathave

highleadlossratesduringtheproduction,manufacturingandrecyclingprocessesSources:Cherry,2006;Weinert,2006HongKong’

sApproach•1/1/2006–NewGasolineCarsMeetEuro4standards•1/1/2006–NewDieselCarsMeetCALEV2standards•1/1/2007–LightTru

cksBetween2.5-3.5tonsMeetEuro4standards•10/1/2006–NewstandardswillbeIntroducedforTrucksover3.5tons•ULSD(Maximum50PPM)Required;LowerSulfurFuels(1

0PPM)EncouragedByTaxPolicy54IndiaVehiclepopulationgrowthinIndia200520082015202520352-W35.846.187.7174.1236.43-W2.33.

05.38.813.1HCV2.42.94.69.116.2LCV2.43.25.712.526.9Car,SUV6.28.818.041.680.149.163.9121.3246.1372.7ClassGrandTotal0

12310100200300400500MillionVehiclesVehiclePopulationProjectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.com6.7xby20255xby202

5NewVehicleStandardsinIndia•EntireCountry–Euro2–April2005–Euro3–April2010•MajorCities–Delhi,Mumbai,Kolkata,Chennai,Bangalore,Hyderabad&Ahmedabad,Pun

eSurat,Kanpur&AgraEuro3in2005&Euro4in2010–Tighteremissionnormsforallprivatevehicles,citypublicservicevehiclesandcitycommercialvehicles•Euro3Fro

mApril2005•Euro4FromApril2010BrazilBrazil•PassengerCars&LightCommercialVehicles–USEPA1983StandardsSince1997–Tier1Phase

din2005-2007(40/70/100%)–FedLevin2009(Phasein)–NoDieselCarsAllowed•HeavyDutyTrucks&Buses–Euro3Phasedin2004-2006–E

uro4in2009•Fuels–SeeDieselFuelPhaseInSchedule–GasolineSfrom1000to400in2004&to80in20082006200720082009201020112012201320142015D200073%73%

73%63%58%53%5%5%5%5%D50027%27%27%27%27%27%60%45%30%15%D5010%15%20%35%50%65%80%%ESTIMADODEPRODUÇÃOÓLEODIESELINTERIOR2aBOMBA(PU

MP)ÓLEODIESELFERROVIÁRIOEP/TERMOELÉTRICASÓLEODIESEL500ÓLEODIESELMETROPOLITANOÓLEODIESEL50ÓLEODIESELAUTOMO

TIVOExhaustEmissionStandardsinKorea❖GasolinePassengerCar-ULEVofLEV-2standard(ofCARB)appliedfrom2006.

-LEV2NMOGStandardAppliedin2009❖DieselHDV-EURO-4standardappliedfrom2006.10/2008.1.-EURO-Vstandardintroduced9/09-2011❖DieselPassengerCar-EURO-4starts

from2006-EURO5startsfrom2009❖DieselLDT-EURO-4appliedfrom2006.1/2007.1-EURO5appliedfrom9/2010to2012SulfurinFue

ls1/1/200650PPMGasoline30PPMDieselWorldwideMotorcycleEmissionRegulationsJapanIIIStage(2008)HC+NOx:1.0~1.25CO:1.0~1.25ChinaIIS

tage(2004)ECE40HC:1.2NOx:0.3CO:5.510,000kmEuropeEUII(2003)ECE40ColdStartHC:1.0NOx:0.3CO:3.0EUIII(2006)HC:0.8NOx:0.1

5CO:2.030,000km(2006/2007)ECE40ColdStartHC:0.3/0.5NOx:0.15CO:2.012,000/24,000kmIVStage(2004)ECE40ColdStartHC+NOx:2.0CO:7.015,000kmTaiwanIIS

tage(2005)IDCColdStartHC+NOx:1.5CO:1.530,000kmIndiaNote:I/M(InspectionandMaintenance)Life-cycleEmissionControlCertificationConformityofProduc

tionRecallProgramI/MProgram(annualidletest,roadsideidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarra

ntyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantlingNewVehicleselectiveenforcementaudit4thyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldan

dpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleCertificationConformityofProductionRecallProgramI/MProgram(annualidletest,roadsid

eidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarrantyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantlingNewVehicleselectiveenforcementaudit4

thyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldandpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleTheCurrentSituationinSantiago•FuelQuality–Gasoline–15PPMSulfurin2

009–Diesel–50PPMSulfur;15PPMin?•LightDutyVehicles–Gasoline–USTier1orEuro3–DieselCATier1orEuro4•Mediu

mDutyVehicles–Tier1orEuro3•HeavyDutyBusandTruck–USEPA98orEuroIII0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.025M.P.ResultadoshomologacióndieselEUROIVpormo

deloEUROIVEUROV0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.300DiesellivianosEuroIV-NOxResultadoshomologacióndieselEUROIVpormodeloEUROIVEUROVResultado

shomologaciónEPApormodelogrs/km(COyHC)Tier0,Tier2Bin5ModeloshomologadosbajonormasEPA(6delos10modelosmásvendidos)CorsaPlushomologado

EuroTier0ResultadoshomologaciónEPApormodelogr/km(Nox)Tier1Tier2Bin8Tier2Bin5MotorcyclesIncreasingRapidly-

10,00010,00030,00050,00070,00090,000110,000200520062007Cantidad(U)AñosdeImportaciónDistribucionAnualdela

sImportacionesdeMotocicletas(Partida8711.)porMercadoyCantidad(U),PeríodoEne2005-Dic2007ASIATICOAMERICANOEUROPE

OOTROSBellagioPrinciples•DesignPrograms&PoliciesThatReduceConventional,Toxic,NoiseandGreenhouseEmissionsinParallel•TreatVehiclesandFuel

sAsASystem•NewVehicleStandardsforGreenhouseEmissions&ConventionalPollutantsShouldBeFuelNeutral•Expect&

RequireBestTechnologiesandFuelsWorldwide–inBothIndustrializedandDevelopingCountriesPriority#1:ReduceDieselPM•NewLightDutyDieselFuel

edVehicles(CarsandMediumTrucks)ShouldMeet–Tier2Bin5in2010,or–Euro5in2010•NewBusesShouldMeetEuroIIIPl

usDieselParticulateFilter;After10/15PPMSulfurFuelisAvailable,Either:–USEPA2010or–EuroVINewDieselTrucks•Ci

tyTrucks(StickerEnforced)–EuroIIIPlusDieselParticulateFilter•NationalTrucks–EuroIVStandards•InternationalTrucks–EuroIIIStandardsPriority#2:

ReduceNOx,OtherToxicEmissions•LightDutyGasolineFueledVehiclesShouldMeetEither–Tier2bin5in2010or–Euro5in2010•MotorcyclesAdoptEuro3Standard

sby2010Priority#3:ImproveFuelQuality•ReduceSulfurinDieselFuelto10/15PPMPriority#4:ImplementI/M•ASMLoadedTestProcedureThroughoutSantiago•Centralized

TestingFacilities•GraduallyTighterInUseStandardsPriority#5:IncentivizeAdvancedTechnologies•Currently:Hybr

idsGetImmunityFromAnnualTaxForSeveralYears–ShowsGreatLeadership!