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1InternationalTrendsinEnvironmentalRegulationsforVehiclesSantiago,ChileMay13,2008MichaelP.WalshInternationalC

onsultantChairman,BoardofDirectors,InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationMajorGlobalTrends•EnvironmentalCo

ncernsIncreasing–Particles–GlobalWarming•CleanerandCleanerTechnologiesEnteringMarketplace–HeavyDutyDies

elVehicles–PassengerCars–Motorcycles•CleanerFuelsIncreasinglyCritical–SulfurLevelsApproachingZero–LeadAlmostGone;MMTIncreasingConcern1930194019501960

1970198019902000CalendarYear020040060080010001200MillionsMotorcyclesCommercialVehiclesCarsWorldMotorVehiclePopulationGrowthofVehiclePopulationi

nShanghai,1988-20024E:\ChanghongCHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xlsMostVehiclesAreInCities5OneResult:S

eriousHealthConcerns•WHOConcludes~800,000PrematureDeathsEachYearFromUrbanPM•NumerousStudiesConsistentlyLinkPMWithPrematureDeaths,HospitalA

dmissions,AsthmaAttacks,Etc.•NoEvidenceofaThreshold•Ozone,NO2,VariousToxicsAlsoSeriousHealthConcernsSlide6Source:Cohenetal,2005PM10

inMajorcities9%-8%24%-4%-17%EnergyIndustriesManufacturingIndustriesandConstructionTransportationOtherSector

sFugitiveEmissions-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Change1990-2004(%)Annex1PartyGreenhouseGasEmissionsintheEnergySector•EnergyDemandintheTr

ansportSector:AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%)byRegion2004-2030In2004,94%oftransportenergybasedonfossiloil.Thesharewillonlyslightlydec

reaseto93%in2030.Source:IEAWEO20060123456Growth(%p.a.)BackgroundCarbonDioxideisNotTheWholeStory!Transportationsectorpriorities106443

5534465~60442030mitigationpotential2030BAUemissionsIndustryBuildingsTransportForestryAgriculture/waste/otherPowerTargetUnknownmitigatio

n“Known”mitigation~25>303keyinterventions•Fuel-efficient,lowEmittingcars•Low-carbonfuels•Reducedvehicle-milestraveledthroughcongestionpricing

,BusRapidTransit,etc.Slide11202530354045505520022004200620082010201220142016201820202022MILESPERGALLON(AllcountriesconvertedtoCAFEtestUNITEDSTAT

ESEUROPEJAPANAUSTRALIACANADACHINACALIFORNIAS.KOREAJAPANUNITEDSTATESEUROPEANUNIONCHINAAUSTRALIACANADAS.KOREACALIFORNIA+16STATESDottedline:

ProposedorcontestedSolidlines:EnactedStandardizedComparisonofInternationalFuelEconomyandGHGStandards197319761979

1982198519881991199419972000200320062009012345Grams/KilometerNOxEmissionsStandardsUSGasolineUSDieselEUGasolineEUDieselEUandUSPassen

gerCarExhaustEmissionsStandardsTechnologyCapableofCleaningVehicleEmissionsHasImprovedDramaticallyinthePast30-40YearsTheThree-wayCatalyticConve

rter:AFamiliarTechnologyRe-EngineeredforHighPerformanceinClose-coupledandUnderfloorApplications•Layeredwashcoatarchitectures

andsupportmaterialswithhighthermalstability•IntegratedHCadsorptionfunctions•Mountingmaterialswithimproveddur

ability•Highcelldensityceramicormetallicsubstrates•InsulationschemesforheatmanagementMaximumEmissionsPerf

ormanceIsOnlyAchievedWithNearZeroSulfurFuelDieselParticulateFiltersTrappedPMCellPlugsExhaust(PM,CO,HC)EnterCeramicHoneycombWallExhaust(CO2,H2O

)OutIssuestobalance:•sulfateformation•regenerationandbackpressure•FuelEconomyReductions:•-80to95%PM•-80-100%HC,CO•-80%+toxinsHo

wTheTrapFunctionsTypicalengineexhaustmassandnumberweightedsizedistributionsshownwithalveolardeposition00.020.040.060.080.10.120.

140.160.180.20.0010.0100.1001.00010.000Diameter(m)NormalizedConcentration,dC/Ctotal/dlogDp00.10.20.

30.40.50.60.70.80.91AlveolarDepositionFractionMassWeightingNumberWeightingAlveolarDepositionFractionFineParticlesDp<2.5mUltrafinePar

ticlesDp<100nmNanoparticlesDp<50nmNucleiModeAccumulationModeCoarseModePM10Dp<10mFractionaldepositionof

particlewithdensityof1g/umfromnongrey..GasolineandLPGG-DIConventionalDieselComparisonofParticleEmissionsfromSMPS.7:AllVe

hiclesandFuels-50kph1.00E+061.00E+071.00E+081.00E+091.00E+101.00E+111.00E+121.00E+131101001000logscale[P

articles/km]ConventionalDieselsDirectInjectionGasolineTrapEquippedDieselsMPIandLPGGasoline18CurrentDPF

ApplicationsMillionsofcarsareequippedwithDPFaroundworldAirTankUreaTankCatalystInputTemperatureCatalystOutputTe

mperatureEngineSCRConnectorECMDosingUnitJ1939(Public)AirSolenoidUreaSensorSCRControlExhaustGasProcessorSCRSolutionSystemArchitecture20Emission

scontrolsystemforEuroVIOxidationcatalyst(DOC),catalyst-basedparticulatefilterandurea-SCRwithammoniasl

ipcatalyst(ASC).MixerSCR+ASCDOC(optional)NOxsensorNOxsensorCalifornia’sZEVHistory01000002000003000004000005000006000001990199819992001200

2200320042005ATPZEVsPZEVsZEVRegulationPZEVscreatedCaFCPStartedATPZEVsCreatedZEVRegImplementationFCBuseson-roadZEV-Status▪Goals:–Drivedevelop

mentofZEVs–SupportsbridgingtechnologieslikeHybrids–MaximizesairqualitybenefitswithPZEVs▪Status–PZEVsmarketedbyallautom

akerssubjecttotheregulation,425,000PZEVssoldtodate–Hybridsverysuccessfulinthemarketplace,70,000ATPZEVhybridssoldtodate–

100FuelcellvehiclesbeingplacedinCaliforniainrealworlddemonstrationfleetsHondaCivicHybridATPZEVNear-ZeroEmissionVehiclesLifetimeemissions(

VOC+NOx)PartialZeroEmissionsVehicles(PZEVs)▪Currently20modelsforsale,including4HEVs▪250,000annualsales(14%)in20

05▪1,000,000salesby2015(55%)ModelYearVOC+NOx(kg)Reduction19701900--2005‘PZEV’899.6%Near-ZeroEmissionVehicles•BMW325i•ChryslerSebring•

FordFocus•FordFusion•FordEscapeHEV•HondaAccord•HondaCivicHEV•HondainsightHEV•HyundaiElantra•KiaSpectra•Mazda3•Mazda6•MitsubishiGalant•NissanAl

tima•NissanSentra•SubaruOutback•ToyotaCamry•ToyotaPriusHEV•VWJetta•VolvoS40FleetDemonstrations▪100Fuelcelll

ightdutyvehiclestodate▪Upto7Fuelcellbuses▪Testing,outreach,datacollection,validationZEVTechnologyReview-CARBPlugInHy

bridsAreEmergingElectricbikesinChina,P.R.•ChinaProducedApproximately15MillionElectricbikesin2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenla

rgelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelledscootersandmotorcycles,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorChinesecitiesSources:Cherry,2

006;Weinert,2006WhichCountriesAreGettingCleanTechnologies?•CleanFuels•StringentStandardsIncludingAdvancedTe

chnologyMandates•StrongIncentives–Economic–OtherMyGlobalVisionFor2015•EveryNewDieselHasPMFilter&LowNOx•GasolineVehiclesApproachingZEROEmissions•

HybridTechnologies(IncludingPlugInHybrids)AreMature,WidespreadTechnology•SmallBatteryElectricVehicles(City)VehiclesWidel

yUsed•FuelCellVehicleNumbersIncreasingWhatIsTheSituationTodayinSantiago•GoodFuelQuality<50PPMSulfurButNotTakingAdvantageofThisToIntr

oduceDieselFiltersWidely–ShouldBeHighestPriority•MuchCleanerGasolineVehiclesAreFeasible,EspeciallyWithLo

wSin2009•IncentivesForHybridsCouldBeExpandedAShortTermPlanForSantiago•TightenRequirementsSufficientlyToRequ

irePMFiltersonNewDieselCarsandBuses•LowerDieselSulfurto10/15PPM•IntroduceEuro5orTier2Bin5forAllNewCarsandLightTrucks•IntroduceEuro3ForMotorcy

cles•ImplementASMBasedCentralizedI/MForAllLightDutyVehiclesITALYGREECEBULGARIAROMANIAHUNGARYSERBIAAUSTRIAFRANCESPAINPORTUGALGERMANYPOLAND

SLOVAKIACZECHREPUBLICSWITZERLANDNETHERLANDSBELGIUMCROATIASLOVENIABOSNIAUNITEDKINGDOMIRELANDNORWAYSWEDENFINLANDI

CELANDALBANIAMACEDONIADENMARKLUXEMBOURGANDORRAMALTAMONACOEuropeEuropeOverview•2007Developments–LightDutyEuro5&6Adopted(TooSlowBut#Added)–Truck&Bus

EuroVIProposedByCommissionEuro42005Euro52009/10Euro62014/15USTier2AvgARBSULEV00.050.10.150.20.250.3Gra

ms/KmGasolineNOxDieselNOxDieselPMx10EUandUSLightDutyGasolineandEUandUSLightDutyGasolineandDieselVehicleStandardsDieselVehicleStandardsEuro5

+andEuro6WillInclude6X1011/kmParticleNumberLimitComparisonofNOxandPMregulationsforHDdieselvehicleamongJapan,USAandEurope0.00.10.20.30246NOxg/kWhPM

g/kWh1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JAPAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalue0.00.10.20.30246NO

xg/kWhPMg/kWh1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JAPAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalueUnitedStatesUnitedStat

esReconcilingtheDieselEngineWiththeEnvironment:AComprehensiveApproachTier2Light-duty(1999)2007/2010Heavy-duty(2001)Tier4diesel(2004)Co

mmonAspects--•Systemsapproach–fuelchangeenablescleantechnologies•Largeenvironmentalbenefits•Responsivetoneed

sofStatestomeetairqualitygoals•CollaborativeprocessHighwayNonroadLocomotive/Marine*Thisfigureisintendedtoillustratethetimelineforthefinalh

ighwayandnonroaddieselfuelsulfurcontrolprograms.Itisnotdrawntoexactscale.Referto40CFRPart80forspecificprogramdates.AllD

iesel~3400ppmHighwayDiesel500ppmAllOff-HighwayDiesel~3400ppm>80%15ppm<20%500ppmAllHighway15ppm10/199306/200601/2010Highway+NonroadDieselFuelSulf

urSpecs*NR,L&MDiesel500ppmNR15ppm6/20076/2010HWYNRL&M500ppm6/2014HHF~3400ppmSmall15ppm6/2012Small&Credit500ppmS

mall&Credit~3400HHF~3400ppmL&M15ppmover3million40,000lostworkdayshospitaladmissionschronicbronchitisprematured

eathsnumberpreventedannually(in2030)010,00020,00030,000HealthBenefitsAreTremendous!TheBenefitsFarOutweighTheCosts40,000costbenefitTotalCost:$11bill

ionTotalBenefits:$175billion020406080100Tier4Nonroad2007Heavy-dutyHighwayTier2Light-dutyHighway$BillionAnnuallyin203030%PZEV“1

0%”Mandate42%byvolume2%ATPZEV11%~1%ZEVZEVProgram(2012–2014)CurrentZEVProgramZEVProgramZEVTechnologyReview-CARBChi

naHARBINSHENYANGTIANJIN躌躆QILANZHOUXI碅NSHANGHAIWUHANCHENGDUGUANGZHOULHASABEIJINGStatusofAirQualityPM10levelsinMajorChineseCities(1999–2005)0501

001502002501999200020012002200320042005concentrationsinµg/m3BeijingGuangzhouGuiyangJinanLuoyangShanghaiShija

zhuangTianjinUrumqiWuhanXi’anNAAQSClassIIPM10limit=100µg/m3China’sGDP789101112199619971998199920002001200

220032004200520062007YearGDPannualgrowth%3.5trillionUS$UrbanizationRateinChina303234363840424446199619971998199920002001200220032004

200520062007YearUrbanPopulationRatio:%200millionpeoplemovedtocitiessince1996NewVehicleSalesAreBoomingNo.2largestautomarket13579199619971998199920

002001200220032004200520062007MillionsCrudeoilprod’n&consum’n>40%oilimportdependence150200250300350199619971998199920002001200220

032004200520062007MillionTonsProductionConsumptionMotorVehicleGrowthForecast200520082015202520352-W55.378.1146.7193.2130.43-W2.01.51.7

0.30.0HCV10.413.919.929.337.5LCV9.413.122.837.752.9Car,SUV12.923.456.8115.8192.790.0130.0248.0376.4413.6ClassGrandTotal012310100200300400500Mi

llionVehicles9xby20253.5xby2025VehiclePopulationProjectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.comChinaOv

erview•2007Developments–Euro3(EuroIII)StandardsIntroducedNationally–Euro4(IV)AdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–50PPMS

ulfurAdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–MMTMaximumReducedFrom18to16Nationallyandto6inBeijing–SEPANowMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection•LookingAhead–Cont

inueCleanFuelsPush–IntroduceEuro4(IV)Nationally–AccelerateinOtherCities(Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,)–ComplianceProgr

am–RetrofitsElectricbikesinChina,P.R.•ElectricbikesinChinaincreasedfromonly40,000in1998to10millionin2005to~15in2007•Salesincreasedfromabou

t7.5millionunitsinin2004to10millionunitsin2005to~15in2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenlargelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelled

scootersandmotorcycles,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorChinesecities•Themostproblematicissuewithel

ectricbikesistheuseofleadacidbatteriesthathavehighleadlossratesduringtheproduction,manufacturingandrecyclingprocessesSources:Ch

erry,2006;Weinert,2006HongKong’sApproach•1/1/2006–NewGasolineCarsMeetEuro4standards•1/1/2006–NewDieselCarsMeetCALEV2standards•1/1/2007–LightTrucksBet

ween2.5-3.5tonsMeetEuro4standards•10/1/2006–NewstandardswillbeIntroducedforTrucksover3.5tons•ULSD(Max

imum50PPM)Required;LowerSulfurFuels(10PPM)EncouragedByTaxPolicy54IndiaVehiclepopulationgrowthinIndia20052008201

5202520352-W35.846.187.7174.1236.43-W2.33.05.38.813.1HCV2.42.94.69.116.2LCV2.43.25.712.526.9Car,SUV6.2

8.818.041.680.149.163.9121.3246.1372.7ClassGrandTotal012310100200300400500MillionVehiclesVehiclePopulationPro

jectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.com6.7xby20255xby2025NewVehicleStandardsinIndia•EntireCountry–Euro2–April2005–Euro3–Ap

ril2010•MajorCities–Delhi,Mumbai,Kolkata,Chennai,Bangalore,Hyderabad&Ahmedabad,PuneSurat,Kanpur&AgraEuro3in2

005&Euro4in2010–Tighteremissionnormsforallprivatevehicles,citypublicservicevehiclesandcitycommercialvehicles•Euro3

FromApril2005•Euro4FromApril2010BrazilBrazil•PassengerCars&LightCommercialVehicles–USEPA1983StandardsSince1997–Tier1Phasedin2005-2007(40/

70/100%)–FedLevin2009(Phasein)–NoDieselCarsAllowed•HeavyDutyTrucks&Buses–Euro3Phasedin2004-2006–Euro4in2009•Fuels–SeeDieselFuelPhaseInSchedule–

GasolineSfrom1000to400in2004&to80in20082006200720082009201020112012201320142015D200073%73%73%63%58%53%5

%5%5%5%D50027%27%27%27%27%27%60%45%30%15%D5010%15%20%35%50%65%80%%ESTIMADODEPRODUÇÃOÓLEODIESELINTERIOR2aBOMBA(PUMP)ÓLEODIESELFERROVIÁRIOEP/TE

RMOELÉTRICASÓLEODIESEL500ÓLEODIESELMETROPOLITANOÓLEODIESEL50ÓLEODIESELAUTOMOTIVOExhaustEmissionStandardsinK

orea❖GasolinePassengerCar-ULEVofLEV-2standard(ofCARB)appliedfrom2006.-LEV2NMOGStandardAppliedin2009❖DieselHDV-EU

RO-4standardappliedfrom2006.10/2008.1.-EURO-Vstandardintroduced9/09-2011❖DieselPassengerCar-EURO-4startsfrom2006-EURO5startsfrom2009❖Dies

elLDT-EURO-4appliedfrom2006.1/2007.1-EURO5appliedfrom9/2010to2012SulfurinFuels1/1/200650PPMGasoline30PPMDieselWorldwideMotorcy

cleEmissionRegulationsJapanIIIStage(2008)HC+NOx:1.0~1.25CO:1.0~1.25ChinaIIStage(2004)ECE40HC:1.2NOx:0.3CO:5.510,000kmE

uropeEUII(2003)ECE40ColdStartHC:1.0NOx:0.3CO:3.0EUIII(2006)HC:0.8NOx:0.15CO:2.030,000km(2006/2007)ECE40ColdStartHC:0.3/0.5NOx:0.15CO

:2.012,000/24,000kmIVStage(2004)ECE40ColdStartHC+NOx:2.0CO:7.015,000kmTaiwanIIStage(2005)IDCColdStartHC+NOx:1.5CO:1.530,000kmIndiaNote:I/M(

InspectionandMaintenance)Life-cycleEmissionControlCertificationConformityofProductionRecallProgramI/MProgram(ann

ualidletest,roadsideidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarrantyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantlingNewVehicleselectiveenforcementaudit4

thyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldandpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleCertificationConformityofProductionRecallProgramI/MProgram(annualidletest,

roadsideidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarrantyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantlingNewVehicles

electiveenforcementaudit4thyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldandpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleTheCurrentSituationinSantiago•

FuelQuality–Gasoline–15PPMSulfurin2009–Diesel–50PPMSulfur;15PPMin?•LightDutyVehicles–Gasoline–USTier1orEuro3–DieselCATier1orEuro

4•MediumDutyVehicles–Tier1orEuro3•HeavyDutyBusandTruck–USEPA98orEuroIII0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.025M.P.ResultadoshomologacióndieselEU

ROIVpormodeloEUROIVEUROV0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.300DiesellivianosEuroIV-NOxResultadoshomologacióndieselEUROIVpormodeloEUROIVE

UROVResultadoshomologaciónEPApormodelogrs/km(COyHC)Tier0,Tier2Bin5ModeloshomologadosbajonormasEPA(6delos10modelosmásvendidos)CorsaPlushomologadoE

uroTier0ResultadoshomologaciónEPApormodelogr/km(Nox)Tier1Tier2Bin8Tier2Bin5MotorcyclesIncreasingRapidly-10,00010,00030,00050,00

070,00090,000110,000200520062007Cantidad(U)AñosdeImportaciónDistribucionAnualdelasImportacionesdeMotocicletas(Partida8711.)porMercadoy

Cantidad(U),PeríodoEne2005-Dic2007ASIATICOAMERICANOEUROPEOOTROSBellagioPrinciples•DesignPrograms&PoliciesThatReduceConventional,Toxic,N

oiseandGreenhouseEmissionsinParallel•TreatVehiclesandFuelsAsASystem•NewVehicleStandardsforGreenhouseEmissions&ConventionalPollutantsS

houldBeFuelNeutral•Expect&RequireBestTechnologiesandFuelsWorldwide–inBothIndustrializedandDevelopingCountriesPriority#1:R

educeDieselPM•NewLightDutyDieselFueledVehicles(CarsandMediumTrucks)ShouldMeet–Tier2Bin5in2010,or–Euro5in2010•NewBusesShouldMeetEuroI

IIPlusDieselParticulateFilter;After10/15PPMSulfurFuelisAvailable,Either:–USEPA2010or–EuroVINewDieselTrucks•

CityTrucks(StickerEnforced)–EuroIIIPlusDieselParticulateFilter•NationalTrucks–EuroIVStandards•InternationalTrucks–EuroIIISta

ndardsPriority#2:ReduceNOx,OtherToxicEmissions•LightDutyGasolineFueledVehiclesShouldMeetEither–Tier2bin5in2010or–Euro5in2010•MotorcyclesAdopt

Euro3Standardsby2010Priority#3:ImproveFuelQuality•ReduceSulfurinDieselFuelto10/15PPMPriority#4:ImplementI/M•ASMLoad

edTestProcedureThroughoutSantiago•CentralizedTestingFacilities•GraduallyTighterInUseStandardsPriority#5:Incen

tivizeAdvancedTechnologies•Currently:HybridsGetImmunityFromAnnualTaxForSeveralYears–ShowsGreatLeadership!