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1InternationalTrendsinEnvironmentalRegulationsforVehiclesSantiago,ChileMay13,2008MichaelP.WalshInternationalConsultantChairman,BoardofDirectors,

InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportationMajorGlobalTrends•EnvironmentalConcernsIncreasing–Particles–GlobalWarming•Cle

anerandCleanerTechnologiesEnteringMarketplace–HeavyDutyDieselVehicles–PassengerCars–Motorcycles•CleanerFuelsIncreasinglyCritica

l–SulfurLevelsApproachingZero–LeadAlmostGone;MMTIncreasingConcern19301940195019601970198019902000CalendarYear020040060080010001200MillionsMotorcycle

sCommercialVehiclesCarsWorldMotorVehiclePopulationGrowthofVehiclePopulationinShanghai,1988-20024E:\ChanghongCH

EN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xlsMostVehiclesAreInCities5OneResult:SeriousHealthConcerns•WHOConcludes~800,000PrematureDeathsEachYearFromUr

banPM•NumerousStudiesConsistentlyLinkPMWithPrematureDeaths,HospitalAdmissions,AsthmaAttacks,Etc.•NoEvidenceofaThreshold•Ozone,NO2,VariousToxicsAlsoSe

riousHealthConcernsSlide6Source:Cohenetal,2005PM10inMajorcities9%-8%24%-4%-17%EnergyIndustriesManufacturingIndustriesandConstructionTransportation

OtherSectorsFugitiveEmissions-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Change1990-2004(%)Annex1PartyGreenhouseGasEmissionsint

heEnergySector•EnergyDemandintheTransportSector:AnnualAverageGrowthRate(%)byRegion2004-2030In2004,94%oftransportenergybasedonfossilo

il.Thesharewillonlyslightlydecreaseto93%in2030.Source:IEAWEO20060123456Growth(%p.a.)BackgroundCarbonDioxideisNotTheWholeStory!Transportationsectorp

riorities1064435534465~60442030mitigationpotential2030BAUemissionsIndustryBuildingsTransportForestryAgriculture/w

aste/otherPowerTargetUnknownmitigation“Known”mitigation~25>303keyinterventions•Fuel-efficient,lowEmitt

ingcars•Low-carbonfuels•Reducedvehicle-milestraveledthroughcongestionpricing,BusRapidTransit,etc.Slide11202530354045505520022

004200620082010201220142016201820202022MILESPERGALLON(AllcountriesconvertedtoCAFEtestUNITEDSTATESEUROPEJAPANAUSTRALIACANADACHINACALI

FORNIAS.KOREAJAPANUNITEDSTATESEUROPEANUNIONCHINAAUSTRALIACANADAS.KOREACALIFORNIA+16STATESDottedline:ProposedorcontestedSolidlines:EnactedStanda

rdizedComparisonofInternationalFuelEconomyandGHGStandards1973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009012345Gra

ms/KilometerNOxEmissionsStandardsUSGasolineUSDieselEUGasolineEUDieselEUandUSPassengerCarExhaustEmissionsStandardsTechnologyCapableofCleaningVe

hicleEmissionsHasImprovedDramaticallyinthePast30-40YearsTheThree-wayCatalyticConverter:AFamiliarTechnologyRe-EngineeredforHighPerformanceinC

lose-coupledandUnderfloorApplications•Layeredwashcoatarchitecturesandsupportmaterialswithhighthermalstability•Int

egratedHCadsorptionfunctions•Mountingmaterialswithimproveddurability•Highcelldensityceramicormetallicsubstrates•Insulationsche

mesforheatmanagementMaximumEmissionsPerformanceIsOnlyAchievedWithNearZeroSulfurFuelDieselParticulateFiltersTrappedPMCellPlugsExhaust(PM,CO,HC

)EnterCeramicHoneycombWallExhaust(CO2,H2O)OutIssuestobalance:•sulfateformation•regenerationandbackpressure•FuelEconomyReductions:•-80to95%PM•-80-10

0%HC,CO•-80%+toxinsHowTheTrapFunctionsTypicalengineexhaustmassandnumberweightedsizedistributionsshownwithalveolardeposition00.020.

040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180.20.0010.0100.1001.00010.000Diameter(m)NormalizedConcentration,dC/Ctotal/dlogDp00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91Alveola

rDepositionFractionMassWeightingNumberWeightingAlveolarDepositionFractionFineParticlesDp<2.5mUltrafineParticlesDp<100nmNanoparticlesDp<50nmNuc

leiModeAccumulationModeCoarseModePM10Dp<10mFractionaldepositionofparticlewithdensityof1g/umfromnongrey..GasolineandLPG

G-DIConventionalDieselComparisonofParticleEmissionsfromSMPS.7:AllVehiclesandFuels-50kph1.00E+061.00E+071.00E+081.00E+091.00E+101.00E+111.00E+121.00

E+131101001000logscale[Particles/km]ConventionalDieselsDirectInjectionGasolineTrapEquippedDieselsMPIand

LPGGasoline18CurrentDPFApplicationsMillionsofcarsareequippedwithDPFaroundworldAirTankUreaTankCatalystInp

utTemperatureCatalystOutputTemperatureEngineSCRConnectorECMDosingUnitJ1939(Public)AirSolenoidUreaSensorSCRControlExhaustGasProcessorSCRSolutionSystem

Architecture20EmissionscontrolsystemforEuroVIOxidationcatalyst(DOC),catalyst-basedparticulatefilterandurea-SCRwithammo

niaslipcatalyst(ASC).MixerSCR+ASCDOC(optional)NOxsensorNOxsensorCalifornia’sZEVHistory01000002000003000004000005000006000001990199819992001200220

0320042005ATPZEVsPZEVsZEVRegulationPZEVscreatedCaFCPStartedATPZEVsCreatedZEVRegImplementationFCBuseson

-roadZEV-Status▪Goals:–DrivedevelopmentofZEVs–SupportsbridgingtechnologieslikeHybrids–MaximizesairqualitybenefitswithPZEVs▪Status–P

ZEVsmarketedbyallautomakerssubjecttotheregulation,425,000PZEVssoldtodate–Hybridsverysuccessfulinthemarketplace,70,000ATPZEVhyb

ridssoldtodate–100FuelcellvehiclesbeingplacedinCaliforniainrealworlddemonstrationfleetsHondaCivicHybridATPZEV

Near-ZeroEmissionVehiclesLifetimeemissions(VOC+NOx)PartialZeroEmissionsVehicles(PZEVs)▪Currently20modelsforsale,including4HEVs▪

250,000annualsales(14%)in2005▪1,000,000salesby2015(55%)ModelYearVOC+NOx(kg)Reduction19701900--2005‘PZEV’899.6%Near-ZeroEmi

ssionVehicles•BMW325i•ChryslerSebring•FordFocus•FordFusion•FordEscapeHEV•HondaAccord•HondaCivicHEV•HondainsightHEV•HyundaiElantra•KiaSpectr

a•Mazda3•Mazda6•MitsubishiGalant•NissanAltima•NissanSentra•SubaruOutback•ToyotaCamry•ToyotaPriusHEV•VWJetta•VolvoS40Fle

etDemonstrations▪100Fuelcelllightdutyvehiclestodate▪Upto7Fuelcellbuses▪Testing,outreach,datacollection,va

lidationZEVTechnologyReview-CARBPlugInHybridsAreEmergingElectricbikesinChina,P.R.•ChinaProducedApproximately15MillionElec

tricbikesin2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenlargelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelledscootersandmotorcycles,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorC

hinesecitiesSources:Cherry,2006;Weinert,2006WhichCountriesAreGettingCleanTechnologies?•CleanFuels•StringentStandar

dsIncludingAdvancedTechnologyMandates•StrongIncentives–Economic–OtherMyGlobalVisionFor2015•EveryNewDies

elHasPMFilter&LowNOx•GasolineVehiclesApproachingZEROEmissions•HybridTechnologies(IncludingPlugInHybrids)AreMature,WidespreadTechnology•Small

BatteryElectricVehicles(City)VehiclesWidelyUsed•FuelCellVehicleNumbersIncreasingWhatIsTheSituationToda

yinSantiago•GoodFuelQuality<50PPMSulfurButNotTakingAdvantageofThisToIntroduceDieselFiltersWidely–ShouldBeHighestPriority•Mu

chCleanerGasolineVehiclesAreFeasible,EspeciallyWithLowSin2009•IncentivesForHybridsCouldBeExpandedAShortTermPlanForSantiago•Tight

enRequirementsSufficientlyToRequirePMFiltersonNewDieselCarsandBuses•LowerDieselSulfurto10/15PPM•Introd

uceEuro5orTier2Bin5forAllNewCarsandLightTrucks•IntroduceEuro3ForMotorcycles•ImplementASMBasedCentralizedI/MForAllLightDutyVehiclesITALYG

REECEBULGARIAROMANIAHUNGARYSERBIAAUSTRIAFRANCESPAINPORTUGALGERMANYPOLANDSLOVAKIACZECHREPUBLICSWITZERLANDNETHERLANDSBELGIUMCROATIASLOVENIABOSNIAUNITE

DKINGDOMIRELANDNORWAYSWEDENFINLANDICELANDALBANIAMACEDONIADENMARKLUXEMBOURGANDORRAMALTAMONACOEuropeEuropeOverview•2007D

evelopments–LightDutyEuro5&6Adopted(TooSlowBut#Added)–Truck&BusEuroVIProposedByCommissionEuro42005Euro52009/1

0Euro62014/15USTier2AvgARBSULEV00.050.10.150.20.250.3Grams/KmGasolineNOxDieselNOxDieselPMx10EUandUSLightDut

yGasolineandEUandUSLightDutyGasolineandDieselVehicleStandardsDieselVehicleStandardsEuro5+andEuro6WillInclude6X1011/kmPar

ticleNumberLimitComparisonofNOxandPMregulationsforHDdieselvehicleamongJapan,USAandEurope0.00.10.20.30246NOxg/kWhPMg/kWh

1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JAPAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalue0.00.10.20.30246NOxg/kWh

PMg/kWh1997JAPAN2003JAPAN2005JAPAN2005EURO42000EURO31998US2004US2008EURO52007US2009JAPAN2009JAPANChallengingvalueUnitedSta

tesUnitedStatesReconcilingtheDieselEngineWiththeEnvironment:AComprehensiveApproachTier2Light-duty(1999)2007/20

10Heavy-duty(2001)Tier4diesel(2004)CommonAspects--•Systemsapproach–fuelchangeenablescleantechnologies•Largeenvironmentalbenefits•Responsive

toneedsofStatestomeetairqualitygoals•CollaborativeprocessHighwayNonroadLocomotive/Marine*Thisfigureisintendedtoillust

ratethetimelineforthefinalhighwayandnonroaddieselfuelsulfurcontrolprograms.Itisnotdrawntoexactscale.Referto40CFRPart80forspecificprogramdates.A

llDiesel~3400ppmHighwayDiesel500ppmAllOff-HighwayDiesel~3400ppm>80%15ppm<20%500ppmAllHighway15ppm10/199306/20060

1/2010Highway+NonroadDieselFuelSulfurSpecs*NR,L&MDiesel500ppmNR15ppm6/20076/2010HWYNRL&M500ppm6/2014HHF~3400ppmSmall

15ppm6/2012Small&Credit500ppmSmall&Credit~3400HHF~3400ppmL&M15ppmover3million40,000lostworkdayshospitaladmissionschronicbronchitisprematuredeathsnum

berpreventedannually(in2030)010,00020,00030,000HealthBenefitsAreTremendous!TheBenefitsFarOutweighTheCosts40,000costbenefitTotalCo

st:$11billionTotalBenefits:$175billion020406080100Tier4Nonroad2007Heavy-dutyHighwayTier2Light-dutyHighway$

BillionAnnuallyin203030%PZEV“10%”Mandate42%byvolume2%ATPZEV11%~1%ZEVZEVProgram(2012–2014)CurrentZEVProgramZEVProgramZEVTechno

logyReview-CARBChinaHARBINSHENYANGTIANJIN躌躆QILANZHOUXI碅NSHANGHAIWUHANCHENGDUGUANGZHOULHASABEIJINGStatusofAirQualityPM10levelsinMaj

orChineseCities(1999–2005)0501001502002501999200020012002200320042005concentrationsinµg/m3BeijingGua

ngzhouGuiyangJinanLuoyangShanghaiShijazhuangTianjinUrumqiWuhanXi’anNAAQSClassIIPM10limit=100µg/m3China’sGDP7891011121996

19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007YearGDPannualgrowth%3.5trillionUS$UrbanizationRateinChina

303234363840424446199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007YearUrbanPopulationRatio:%200millionpeoplemovedtocitiessince1996NewVehicle

SalesAreBoomingNo.2largestautomarket13579199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007MillionsCrudeoilprod’n&consum’n>40%oilimportdep

endence150200250300350199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007MillionTonsProductionConsumptionMotorVehicleGrowthForec

ast200520082015202520352-W55.378.1146.7193.2130.43-W2.01.51.70.30.0HCV10.413.919.929.337.5LCV9.413.122.837.752.9Car,SUV12.92

3.456.8115.8192.790.0130.0248.0376.4413.6ClassGrandTotal012310100200300400500MillionVehicles9xby20253.5xby2025Vehicle

PopulationProjectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.comChinaOverview•2007Developments–Euro3(EuroIII)Sta

ndardsIntroducedNationally–Euro4(IV)AdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–50PPMSulfurAdoptedbyBeijing(January1,2008)–MMTMaximumReducedFrom18to16Natio

nallyandto6inBeijing–SEPANowMinistryofEnvironmentalProtection•LookingAhead–ContinueCleanFuelsPush–IntroduceE

uro4(IV)Nationally–AccelerateinOtherCities(Shanghai,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,)–ComplianceProgram–RetrofitsElectricbikesinChina,P.R.•Electricbikesin

Chinaincreasedfromonly40,000in1998to10millionin2005to~15in2007•Salesincreasedfromabout7.5millionunitsinin2004to10millionunitsin2005

to~15in2007•Thisdramaticgrowthhasbeenlargelyduetolegislationbanninggasolinefuelledscootersandmotorcycl

es,introducedfrom1996onwardsinseveralmajorChinesecities•Themostproblematicissuewithelectricbikesistheuseofleadacidbatteriesthatha

vehighleadlossratesduringtheproduction,manufacturingandrecyclingprocessesSources:Cherry,2006;Weinert,2006

HongKong’sApproach•1/1/2006–NewGasolineCarsMeetEuro4standards•1/1/2006–NewDieselCarsMeetCALEV2standa

rds•1/1/2007–LightTrucksBetween2.5-3.5tonsMeetEuro4standards•10/1/2006–NewstandardswillbeIntroducedforTrucksover3.5tons•ULSD(Maximum50PPM)Required

;LowerSulfurFuels(10PPM)EncouragedByTaxPolicy54IndiaVehiclepopulationgrowthinIndia200520082015202520352-

W35.846.187.7174.1236.43-W2.33.05.38.813.1HCV2.42.94.69.116.2LCV2.43.25.712.526.9Car,SUV6.28.818.041.680.149.163.9121.3246.1372.7ClassGr

andTotal012310100200300400500MillionVehiclesVehiclePopulationProjectionfromSegmentYplcSee:http://segmenty.co

m6.7xby20255xby2025NewVehicleStandardsinIndia•EntireCountry–Euro2–April2005–Euro3–April2010•MajorCities–Delhi,Mumbai,Kolkata,Chennai,Ban

galore,Hyderabad&Ahmedabad,PuneSurat,Kanpur&AgraEuro3in2005&Euro4in2010–Tighteremissionnormsforallprivateveh

icles,citypublicservicevehiclesandcitycommercialvehicles•Euro3FromApril2005•Euro4FromApril2010BrazilBrazil•Passen

gerCars&LightCommercialVehicles–USEPA1983StandardsSince1997–Tier1Phasedin2005-2007(40/70/100%)–FedLevin2009(Phasein)–NoDieselCar

sAllowed•HeavyDutyTrucks&Buses–Euro3Phasedin2004-2006–Euro4in2009•Fuels–SeeDieselFuelPhaseInSchedule–GasolineSfrom1000to400in2

004&to80in20082006200720082009201020112012201320142015D200073%73%73%63%58%53%5%5%5%5%D50027%27%27%27%27%27%60%45%30%15%D5010%15%20%35%50

%65%80%%ESTIMADODEPRODUÇÃOÓLEODIESELINTERIOR2aBOMBA(PUMP)ÓLEODIESELFERROVIÁRIOEP/TERMOELÉTRICASÓLEODIESEL500ÓLEODIESELMETROPOLITANOÓLEODIESEL50ÓLEODI

ESELAUTOMOTIVOExhaustEmissionStandardsinKorea❖GasolinePassengerCar-ULEVofLEV-2standard(ofCARB)appliedfrom2006.

-LEV2NMOGStandardAppliedin2009❖DieselHDV-EURO-4standardappliedfrom2006.10/2008.1.-EURO-Vstandardintroduced9/09-2011❖DieselPassengerCar-EURO-4starts

from2006-EURO5startsfrom2009❖DieselLDT-EURO-4appliedfrom2006.1/2007.1-EURO5appliedfrom9/2010to2012SulfurinFuels1/1/200650PPMGasoline30PPMDie

selWorldwideMotorcycleEmissionRegulationsJapanIIIStage(2008)HC+NOx:1.0~1.25CO:1.0~1.25ChinaIIStage(2004)ECE40HC:1.2NOx:0.3CO:5.51

0,000kmEuropeEUII(2003)ECE40ColdStartHC:1.0NOx:0.3CO:3.0EUIII(2006)HC:0.8NOx:0.15CO:2.030,000km(2006/2007)ECE40ColdStart

HC:0.3/0.5NOx:0.15CO:2.012,000/24,000kmIVStage(2004)ECE40ColdStartHC+NOx:2.0CO:7.015,000kmTaiwanIIStage(2005)IDCColdStartHC+NOx:1.5CO:1.530

,000kmIndiaNote:I/M(InspectionandMaintenance)Life-cycleEmissionControlCertificationConformityofProductionRecallProgramI/MProgr

am(annualidletest,roadsideidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarrantyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantlingNewVehicleselectiveenforcementaudit4t

hyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldandpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleCertificationConformityofProductionRecallProgramI/MProgram(a

nnualidletest,roadsideidletest),etc.NewVehicleDevelopmentVehicleinWarrantyVehicleEnd-of-LifeDismantli

ngNewVehicleselectiveenforcementaudit4thyearIncentivePolicyRetiringoldandpurchasinginjectionmotorcycleTheCurrentSituationinSantiago•Fu

elQuality–Gasoline–15PPMSulfurin2009–Diesel–50PPMSulfur;15PPMin?•LightDutyVehicles–Gasoline–USTier1orEuro

3–DieselCATier1orEuro4•MediumDutyVehicles–Tier1orEuro3•HeavyDutyBusandTruck–USEPA98orEuroIII0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.025M

.P.ResultadoshomologacióndieselEUROIVpormodeloEUROIVEUROV0.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.300DiesellivianosEuroIV-NOxResu

ltadoshomologacióndieselEUROIVpormodeloEUROIVEUROVResultadoshomologaciónEPApormodelogrs/km(COyHC)Tier0,Tier2Bin5M

odeloshomologadosbajonormasEPA(6delos10modelosmásvendidos)CorsaPlushomologadoEuroTier0Resultadoshomolo

gaciónEPApormodelogr/km(Nox)Tier1Tier2Bin8Tier2Bin5MotorcyclesIncreasingRapidly-10,00010,00030,00050,00070,00090,000110,000200520062007Cantidad

(U)AñosdeImportaciónDistribucionAnualdelasImportacionesdeMotocicletas(Partida8711.)porMercadoyCantidad(U),Perí

odoEne2005-Dic2007ASIATICOAMERICANOEUROPEOOTROSBellagioPrinciples•DesignPrograms&PoliciesThatReduceConventional,Toxic,No

iseandGreenhouseEmissionsinParallel•TreatVehiclesandFuelsAsASystem•NewVehicleStandardsforGreenhouseEmissions&

ConventionalPollutantsShouldBeFuelNeutral•Expect&RequireBestTechnologiesandFuelsWorldwide–inBothIndustrializedandDevelopingCountriesPriorit

y#1:ReduceDieselPM•NewLightDutyDieselFueledVehicles(CarsandMediumTrucks)ShouldMeet–Tier2Bin5in2010,or–Euro5in2010•NewBusesShouldMeetEu

roIIIPlusDieselParticulateFilter;After10/15PPMSulfurFuelisAvailable,Either:–USEPA2010or–EuroVINewDieselTrucks•

CityTrucks(StickerEnforced)–EuroIIIPlusDieselParticulateFilter•NationalTrucks–EuroIVStandards•InternationalTrucks–EuroIIIStandardsPriorit

y#2:ReduceNOx,OtherToxicEmissions•LightDutyGasolineFueledVehiclesShouldMeetEither–Tier2bin5in2010or–Euro5in2010•MotorcyclesAdoptEuro3

Standardsby2010Priority#3:ImproveFuelQuality•ReduceSulfurinDieselFuelto10/15PPMPriority#4:ImplementI/M•ASMLoadedTestProcedureThroughoutSantiago

•CentralizedTestingFacilities•GraduallyTighterInUseStandardsPriority#5:IncentivizeAdvancedTechnologies•Currently:HybridsGetImmunityFromAnnualTaxFo

rSeveralYears–ShowsGreatLeadership!