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中国IT市场趋势与展望2004-2008CCIDConsulting黄涌2004年2月10日3,326.93,956.84,776.15,685.66,670.57,630.420.7%19.0%17.3%14.4%18.9

%15.4%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002003200420052006200720080.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%TotalMarketRev.GrowthRateY/Y中国IT市

场趋势(2004-2008)TendencyofChinaITMarket,2004-2008CAGR:18.1%∑Investment=2295.2B04-08100MRMB中国计算机系统市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaComputerSys

temMarket,2004-20089.20%14.2%14.5%13.9%16.0%12.1%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002003200420052006200720080.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10

.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%IASystemRISCSystemGrowthRateY/Y100MRMBIACAGR:14.9%RISCCAGR:6.5%TotalCAGR:14.1%1036.81

184.11355.31543.71790.02006.510.5%Share7.4%Share921.51,039.51,162.81,320.61,476.91,605.29.1%12.8%11.9%13.6%11.8%8.7%

0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02003200420052006200720080.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%1

4.0%16.0%PeripheralsGrowthRateY/Y100MRMB03-08CAGR:11.7%中国外围设备市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaPeripheralsMarket,2004-2008122.

3219.5386.2618.5577.4506.568.2%79.4%75.9%14.0%7.1%31.1%01002003004005006007002003200420052006200720080.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%产品2004年

2005年2006年2007年2008年数码相机45.472.379.385.6108.6MP327.237.542.646.346.3闪存盘16.117.818.919.820.1移动硬盘13.519.526.931.731.3PDA117.3

239.1338.8394.0412.2中国数码产品市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaPeripheralsMarket,2004-2008GrowthRateY/YRevenue:100MRMBCAGR:38.3%30.0%24.4

%13.4%30.8%132.2%04-08CAGR171.1208.1256.4318.7394.8475.223.9%21.6%23.2%24.3%23.9%20.4%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.03

50.0400.0450.0500.020032004200520062007200818.0%19.0%20.0%21.0%22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%TotalofNetworksRev.GRY/Y100MRMBSwitch/Router/HUB/xDSL/Modem

/WLAN/Securities…03-08CAGR:22.7%中国网络产品市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaNetworksMarket,2004-20080.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.0Applica

tion260.9310.5382.7460.2543.5638.4Midware28.937.550.868.488.6113.6Platform109.8122.0141.3166.5194.62

23.7200320042005200620072008ApplicationCAGR:19.6%MidwareCAGR:31.5%PlatformCAGR:15.3%TotalCAGR:19.5%100MRM

B中国软件市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaSoftwareMarket,2004-2008154.2175.0205.2242.9283.0322.0200.1243.7308.3396.4506.

6634.8189.7254.4328.8415.6507.1610.20.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.0200320042005200620072008SupportingProfessionalNetw

orkingSupportingCAGR:15.9%ProfessionalCAGR:26.0%NetworkingCAGR:26.3%TotalCAGR:23.6%中国信息服务市场预测(2004-2008)Forec

astofChinaITServiceMarket,2004-2008中国区域IT市场预测(2004-2008)ForecastofChinaAreasITMarket,2004-2008西部地区17.2%Marke

tShare18.2%04-08CAGR南部地区21.2%MarketShare16.8%03-05CAGR东部地区30%MarketShare18.1%03-05CAGR北部地区31.7%MarketShare17.4%03-05CAGR区域增长趋于平衡北部区域IT投资加速东南部区域增长稳健

商业驱动政策驱动政策驱动IT—先进生产力经济与商业运营模式变革孕育催生新兴产业商业高效率、智能化ComputingConsumerCommunicationICT大众化专业化产业融合与双极应用InosculationofIndustry

andbipolarApplicationPCIAInfoReceiveDeviceServerSupercomputingCommoditizationProfessionalCompetition&Renov

ationInosculation&Creation竞争与变革融合与拓新适应产业融合趋势把握市场拓新先机