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L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSustainabilityPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroec

onomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05LectureOutline❑Howdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?❑Fiscalpolicyforshort-termmacroecon

omicstability❑Fiscalpolicytoreducevulnerability❑FiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionThistrainingmaterialistheproper

tyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.”2HowDoWeMeasur

eFiscalPolicy?3MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Fiscalpolicyistheuseofgovernmentspendingandtaxationtoinfluencetheeconom

y.•Flowindicators•Overallfiscalbalance:differencebetweentotalrevenue(includinggrants)andtotalexpenditurespluslendingminusrepayments•Primaryb

alance:revenueminusnon-interest(primary)expenditure•Currentbalance:differencebetweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpenditures•Cyclicallyadjustedbala

nce:nominalfiscalbalancenetofthecyclicalcomponentofthebudget4MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Stockindicators•Networ

th:differencebetweenassetsandliabilities•Off-balance-sheetitemse.g.,contingentliabilities,public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)AssetsLi

abilities•Financial(e.g.,governmentdeposits)•Nonfinancial(e.g.,publicroads)•Governmentdebt5MMFWhatisfiscalpol

icyusedfor?•Short-termmacroeconomicstabilization•Reducingvulnerabilities•Growthandpovertyreduction➢Re

lativeimportanceoftheseobjectivesdependsoncountrycircumstances.6MMFFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMacroeconomicStabilization7MMFFiscal

policyformacroeconomicstabilizationFiscalpolicycanbeusedfor:•Mitigatingcyclicality(recurrentboomsandrecession

s)•Taminginflation•Reducingexternalcurrentaccountimbalances•Managingfinancialcrises8MMFFiscalpolicyve

rsusmonetarypolicy•Fiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyshouldbedesignedintandemtogettherightmix.•Whichismoreeffect

iveinmoderatingcyclicality?–Monetarypolicycanbeimplementedfasterbutfiscalpolicymayaffectoutputmoreimmediately.–Ingeneral,fiscalpolicyshould

playabiggerrolewhenmonetarypolicyisconstrained(e.g.,withafixedexchangerate,orwhennominalinterestratesareclosetozero,orwhenfinancialsystemsarelessdev

eloped).9MMF1.CountercyclicalfiscalpolicyTwochannels:•Automaticstabilizers•Discretionarymeasures(fiscalstimulus)10MMF(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpolicyKe

yconsiderations:•Sizeofthefiscalstimulus–Multiplier•Timing•Composition•Duration➢Fiscalstimulusmeasuresshouldbetimely,targeted,andte

mporary(TTT)11MMFWhatdeterminesthesizeofthemultiplier?Thesizeofthemultiplierislargerif:•“Leakages”arefew–Highmarginalpropensit

ytoconsume(c),lowmarginalpropensitytoimport(m)–NoRicardianequivalence•Monetaryconditionsareaccommodative–Smallornoincreaseininterestrat

es(nocrowdingout)–Smallornoexchangerateappreciation•Thecountry’sfiscalpositionafterthestimulusissustainable12MMF2.Fiscalpolicya

ndinflation•Fiscalpolicycanaffectinflationthroughmanychannels:–Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyaffectsthepricelevelthroughitsimpactonaggre

gatedemand.–Fiscalpolicycanleadtosustainedinflationifthefiscaldeficitismonetized.–Fiscaladjustmentcanalsoaffectinflationviathedemandformoney,inclu

dingthroughinflationexpectations,interestrates,andconfidence.13MMF3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurrentaccountbalance()()−+−PPGGSISICAB14MMF•Thegovernment’ssa

ving-investmentbalanceislinkedtothecurrentaccountbalancethroughtheexpostincomeidentity:•Fiscalconsolidationcontributestoexternal

adjustmentbutaone-for-oneimprovementinthecurrentaccountbalanceisunlikely.–Inthecaseofexpansionaryfis

calconsolidationthecurrentaccountbalancecouldevendeteriorate.4.Fiscalpolicyandfinancialcrises•Whenacapitalaccountcrisi

shits,fiscalconsolidationisusuallyunavoidablebecauseexternalfinancingdriesup.•Iffiscalproblemsaretherootcauseofthef

inancialcrisis(lossofconfidence),fiscalconsolidationisnecessarytoregainmarketaccessandlowerthecostofborrowing.•Iffiscalproblemsa

renottherootcause,fiscalcontractionmaybecounterproductive;fiscalexpansionmaybeneededinstead.15MMFAchievingmedium-termfis

calcredibility•Fiscalrulestoconstrainfuturebehavior•Reasonablemulti-yearspendingceilings•Fiscaltransparency;openandaccountablebu

dgeting–Establishapolitically-independentfiscalagenttomonitorfiscalpolicymaking–Providethepublicwithcomprehensiveinformationonthestateofpublicfi

nances•DisciplinedbudgetpreparationandexecutionMMF16MMF17Fiscalpolicyhasplayedasignificantroleinsupport

ingdemandsincethecrisis,withoff-budgetandLGFVspendingbecomingespeciallyimportantcountercyclicaltool…FiscalPolicyto

ReduceVulnerability18MMFFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalvulnerability•Acountry’spublicfinancesmayappearsound,butmay

bevulnerableifunderlyingweaknessesthreatenitsfuturefiscalpositionandlimitthegovernment’sabilitytoresp

ondtofiscalpolicychallenges.•Examples:–Debtsustainability–Contingentliabilitiesanddebtstructure–Fiscalrigiditi

es–Emergingfiscalpressures,e.g.,demographicchanges19MMFDebtsustainability•Publicdebtissustainablewhenthegovernmentcancontinueserv

icingitwithouttheneedforanunrealisticallylargefuturecorrectiontoitsrevenueorprimary(non-interest)expenditurepath.•Marke

texpectationsareimportanttoo—governmentsthatareabletoassuremarketsaboutfuturefiscalpoliciesmaybeabletomaintainlarger

levelsofdebtthanotherwise.20MMFMMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthasrisentoabove45percentofGDP…22MMFHistorical40Baseline43

3540455055606570200520072009201120132015Baselineandhistoricalscenariosi-rateshock46Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Interestratesho

ck(inpercent)China:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)23MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(Augmen

teddebtinpercentofGDP)Growthshock44Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Growthshock(inpercentperyear)PBshock51Baseline43593545556520082010201

2201420162018Primarybalanceshock(inpercentofGDP)andnopolicychangescenario(constantprimarybalance)Nopoli

cychange24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Combinedshock50Base

line4335455565200520072009201120132015Combinedshock2/30%depreciationBaseline43contingentliabilitiesshock503545556520082010201220142016

2018Longertermfiscalpressures•Demographicchanges(mainlyagingpopulations)willposeincreasingburdensonpublicfinancesofmanydevelope

dandsomedevelopingcountries.Source:Heller(F&D2006)Oldagedependencyrate(%)25MMFFiscalPolicyforGrowthandPovertyReduction2

6MMFFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreduction•Asoundfiscalpositioniskeytoachievingmacroeconomicstability

,whichiscriticalforsustainedgrowthandpovertyreduction.–Perceptionsandinvestorconfidence•High-qualityfiscaladjustment

canalsomobilizedomesticsavings,increasetheefficiencyofresourceallocation,andhelpmeetdevelopmentgoals.–Governmentsaving–“Fiscalspace”27

MMFMobilizingandallocatingresources•Economicgrowthdependsonaccumulatingphysicalandhumancapital,whichinturnrequiressavings.•Asprivatese

ctorsavingsareoftenlowindevelopingcountries,fiscalpolicycanplayacentralroleinmobilizingresourcesbyrai

singrevenueandreducinglessproductivespending.•Butthemobilizedresourcesmustbeinvestedproductively.–Publicspendingshouldbedirectedt

oareaswiththehighestsocialreturnandshouldcomplement,ratherthancompetewith,theprivatesector(e.g.,health,education,andpensi

onsinChina).28MMF29MMFHighsocialsecuritycontributionratesareanimpedimenttodomesticrebalancinginChina…Fiscalspace•Fiscalspaceintheimmed

iateterm–Needtofindresourcestofinancepressingexpenditurestoday–Linktofiscalsustainability•Fiscalspaceinthemediumterm–Needtoensurethatfuturebudgetar

yresourcesarenotexhaustedbygovernmentexpenditurecommitments,inordertohavescopetorespondtounanticipatedfiscalchallen

gesMMF30