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L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSustainabilityPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeco

nomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05LectureOutline❑Howdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?❑Fiscalpolicyforshort-termmacroe

conomicstability❑Fiscalpolicytoreducevulnerability❑FiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionThistraini

ngmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMF

Institute.”2HowDoWeMeasureFiscalPolicy?3MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Fiscalpolicyistheuseofgovernmentspendingandtaxationtoinfluencethe

economy.•Flowindicators•Overallfiscalbalance:differencebetweentotalrevenue(includinggrants)andtotalexpendituresplusle

ndingminusrepayments•Primarybalance:revenueminusnon-interest(primary)expenditure•Currentbalance:differencebe

tweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpenditures•Cyclicallyadjustedbalance:nominalfiscalbalancenetofthecyclicalcomponentoftheb

udget4MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Stockindicators•Networth:differencebetweenassetsandliabilities•Off-ba

lance-sheetitemse.g.,contingentliabilities,public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)AssetsLiabilities•Financial(e.g.

,governmentdeposits)•Nonfinancial(e.g.,publicroads)•Governmentdebt5MMFWhatisfiscalpolicyusedfor?•Short-termmacroeconomicstabilization•Reducingvul

nerabilities•Growthandpovertyreduction➢Relativeimportanceoftheseobjectivesdependsoncountrycircumstances.6MMFFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMacroecon

omicStabilization7MMFFiscalpolicyformacroeconomicstabilizationFiscalpolicycanbeusedfor:•Mitigatingcyclicality(recurrentboomsandrecess

ions)•Taminginflation•Reducingexternalcurrentaccountimbalances•Managingfinancialcrises8MMFFiscalpolic

yversusmonetarypolicy•Fiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyshouldbedesignedintandemtogettherightmix.•Whichismoreeffec

tiveinmoderatingcyclicality?–Monetarypolicycanbeimplementedfasterbutfiscalpolicymayaffectoutputmoreimm

ediately.–Ingeneral,fiscalpolicyshouldplayabiggerrolewhenmonetarypolicyisconstrained(e.g.,withafixedexchangerate,orwhennominalinterestratesarecloseto

zero,orwhenfinancialsystemsarelessdeveloped).9MMF1.CountercyclicalfiscalpolicyTwochannels:•Automatics

tabilizers•Discretionarymeasures(fiscalstimulus)10MMF(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpolicyKeyconsiderations:•Sizeofthefiscalstimulus–Multiplier•Timing•Com

position•Duration➢Fiscalstimulusmeasuresshouldbetimely,targeted,andtemporary(TTT)11MMFWhatdeterminesthes

izeofthemultiplier?Thesizeofthemultiplierislargerif:•“Leakages”arefew–Highmarginalpropensitytoconsume(c),lowmarginalpropensitytoimport(m)–NoR

icardianequivalence•Monetaryconditionsareaccommodative–Smallornoincreaseininterestrates(nocrowdingout)–Smallornoexchangerateapprecia

tion•Thecountry’sfiscalpositionafterthestimulusissustainable12MMF2.Fiscalpolicyandinflation•Fiscalpolicycanaff

ectinflationthroughmanychannels:–Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyaffectsthepricelevelthroughitsimpactonaggregatedemand.–Fiscalpolicycanleadtosustainedinfl

ationifthefiscaldeficitismonetized.–Fiscaladjustmentcanalsoaffectinflationviathedemandformoney,includingthroughinflationexp

ectations,interestrates,andconfidence.13MMF3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurrentaccountbalance()()−+−PPGGSISICAB14MMF•Thegovernment

’ssaving-investmentbalanceislinkedtothecurrentaccountbalancethroughtheexpostincomeidentity:•Fiscalconsolidationcontri

butestoexternaladjustmentbutaone-for-oneimprovementinthecurrentaccountbalanceisunlikely.–Inthecaseofexpansionaryfiscalconsolidatio

nthecurrentaccountbalancecouldevendeteriorate.4.Fiscalpolicyandfinancialcrises•Whenacapitalaccountcrisishits,fiscalconsolidationisusuall

yunavoidablebecauseexternalfinancingdriesup.•Iffiscalproblemsaretherootcauseofthefinancialcrisis(lossofconfidence),

fiscalconsolidationisnecessarytoregainmarketaccessandlowerthecostofborrowing.•Iffiscalproblemsarenottherootcause,fisc

alcontractionmaybecounterproductive;fiscalexpansionmaybeneededinstead.15MMFAchievingmedium-termfiscalcredibility•Fiscalr

ulestoconstrainfuturebehavior•Reasonablemulti-yearspendingceilings•Fiscaltransparency;openandaccountablebudgeting–Establishapo

litically-independentfiscalagenttomonitorfiscalpolicymaking–Providethepublicwithcomprehensiveinforma

tiononthestateofpublicfinances•DisciplinedbudgetpreparationandexecutionMMF16MMF17Fiscalpolicyhasplayedasignificantroleinsupportingdem

andsincethecrisis,withoff-budgetandLGFVspendingbecomingespeciallyimportantcountercyclicaltool…FiscalPolic

ytoReduceVulnerability18MMFFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalvulnerability•Acountry’spublicfinancesmayappearsound,butmaybevulnerableifunderlying

weaknessesthreatenitsfuturefiscalpositionandlimitthegovernment’sabilitytorespondtofiscalpolicychallenges.•Examples:–Debtsustainability–Cont

ingentliabilitiesanddebtstructure–Fiscalrigidities–Emergingfiscalpressures,e.g.,demographicchanges19MMFDebtsustainability•Publicdebtissustainabl

ewhenthegovernmentcancontinueservicingitwithouttheneedforanunrealisticallylargefuturecorrectiontoitsrevenueorprimary(non-interest)expendi

turepath.•Marketexpectationsareimportanttoo—governmentsthatareabletoassuremarketsaboutfuturefiscalpol

iciesmaybeabletomaintainlargerlevelsofdebtthanotherwise.20MMFMMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthasrisentoabove45percentofGDP…22MMFHistorical

40Baseline433540455055606570200520072009201120132015Baselineandhistoricalscenariosi-rateshock46Baseli

ne4335455565200520072009201120132015Interestrateshock(inpercent)China:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)23MMFChi

na:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Growthshock44Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Growthshock(inperce

ntperyear)PBshock51Baseline435935455565200820102012201420162018Primarybalanceshock(inpercentofGDP)andnopolicychangescenario(constantpr

imarybalance)Nopolicychange24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Combinedshock50Baseline433545

5565200520072009201120132015Combinedshock2/30%depreciationBaseline43contingentliabilitiesshock5035455565200820102012

201420162018Longertermfiscalpressures•Demographicchanges(mainlyagingpopulations)willposeincreasingburdensonpublicfinancesofmanydevelopeda

ndsomedevelopingcountries.Source:Heller(F&D2006)Oldagedependencyrate(%)25MMFFiscalPolicyforGrowthandPovertyReduction26MMFFiscalpolicyf

orgrowthandpovertyreduction•Asoundfiscalpositioniskeytoachievingmacroeconomicstability,whichiscriticalforsustainedgrowthandpovertyredu

ction.–Perceptionsandinvestorconfidence•High-qualityfiscaladjustmentcanalsomobilizedomesticsavings,increasetheefficiencyofresourceallocati

on,andhelpmeetdevelopmentgoals.–Governmentsaving–“Fiscalspace”27MMFMobilizingandallocatingresources•Eco

nomicgrowthdependsonaccumulatingphysicalandhumancapital,whichinturnrequiressavings.•Asprivatesectorsavingsareoftenlowindevelopin

gcountries,fiscalpolicycanplayacentralroleinmobilizingresourcesbyraisingrevenueandreducinglessproductivespending.•Butthemob

ilizedresourcesmustbeinvestedproductively.–Publicspendingshouldbedirectedtoareaswiththehighestsocialreturn

andshouldcomplement,ratherthancompetewith,theprivatesector(e.g.,health,education,andpensionsinChina).28MMF29MMFHighs

ocialsecuritycontributionratesareanimpedimenttodomesticrebalancinginChina…Fiscalspace•Fiscalspaceintheimmediateterm–Needtofindresourcestofinancepres

singexpenditurestoday–Linktofiscalsustainability•Fiscalspaceinthemediumterm–Needtoensurethatfuturebudgetaryre

sourcesarenotexhaustedbygovernmentexpenditurecommitments,inordertohavescopetorespondtounanticipatedfiscalchallengesMMF30