【文档说明】IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L06Fiscal.pptx，共(30)页，356.120 KB，由精品优选上传

转载请保留链接：https://www.ichengzhen.cn/view-323173.html

以下为本文档部分文字说明：

L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSustainabilityPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroecono

micManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05LectureOutline❑Howdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?❑Fiscalpolicyforshort-termmacroeconomicstability❑Fiscalpo

licytoreducevulnerability❑FiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMone

taryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.”2HowDoWeMeasureFisca

lPolicy?3MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Fiscalpolicyistheuseofgovernmentspendingandtaxationtoinfluencetheeconomy.•Flowindicators•Ov

erallfiscalbalance:differencebetweentotalrevenue(includinggrants)andtotalexpenditurespluslendingminusrepayments•Primarybalance:revenueminusnon-

interest(primary)expenditure•Currentbalance:differencebetweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpenditures•Cyclicallyadjustedbalance:nominalfiscalbalance

netofthecyclicalcomponentofthebudget4MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?•Stockindicators•Networth:differenc

ebetweenassetsandliabilities•Off-balance-sheetitemse.g.,contingentliabilities,public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)AssetsLiabilities•

Financial(e.g.,governmentdeposits)•Nonfinancial(e.g.,publicroads)•Governmentdebt5MMFWhatisfiscalpolicyusedfor?•Short-termmacro

economicstabilization•Reducingvulnerabilities•Growthandpovertyreduction➢Relativeimportanceoftheseobjectivesdependsoncoun

trycircumstances.6MMFFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMacroeconomicStabilization7MMFFiscalpolicyformacroeconomicstabil

izationFiscalpolicycanbeusedfor:•Mitigatingcyclicality(recurrentboomsandrecessions)•Taminginflation•Reducing

externalcurrentaccountimbalances•Managingfinancialcrises8MMFFiscalpolicyversusmonetarypolicy•Fiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicy

shouldbedesignedintandemtogettherightmix.•Whichismoreeffectiveinmoderatingcyclicality?–Monetarypolicyc

anbeimplementedfasterbutfiscalpolicymayaffectoutputmoreimmediately.–Ingeneral,fiscalpolicyshouldplayabi

ggerrolewhenmonetarypolicyisconstrained(e.g.,withafixedexchangerate,orwhennominalinterestratesareclosetozero,orwhenfinancialsyste

msarelessdeveloped).9MMF1.CountercyclicalfiscalpolicyTwochannels:•Automaticstabilizers•Discretionarymeasures(fiscalstimulus)10MMF(i

i)DiscretionaryfiscalpolicyKeyconsiderations:•Sizeofthefiscalstimulus–Multiplier•Timing•Composition•Duration➢Fiscalstimulusmeasure

sshouldbetimely,targeted,andtemporary(TTT)11MMFWhatdeterminesthesizeofthemultiplier?Thesizeofthemultiplierislargerif:•“Lea

kages”arefew–Highmarginalpropensitytoconsume(c),lowmarginalpropensitytoimport(m)–NoRicardianequivalence•Monetaryconditionsareaccommodat

ive–Smallornoincreaseininterestrates(nocrowdingout)–Smallornoexchangerateappreciation•Thecountry’sfiscalpositionafterthestimulusissustainable12

MMF2.Fiscalpolicyandinflation•Fiscalpolicycanaffectinflationthroughmanychannels:–Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyaffectsthe

pricelevelthroughitsimpactonaggregatedemand.–Fiscalpolicycanleadtosustainedinflationifthefiscaldefic

itismonetized.–Fiscaladjustmentcanalsoaffectinflationviathedemandformoney,includingthroughinflationexpectations,i

nterestrates,andconfidence.13MMF3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurrentaccountbalance()()−+−PPGGSISICAB14MMF•Theg

overnment’ssaving-investmentbalanceislinkedtothecurrentaccountbalancethroughtheexpostincomeidentity:•Fiscalconsolidationcontri

butestoexternaladjustmentbutaone-for-oneimprovementinthecurrentaccountbalanceisunlikely.–Inthecaseofexpansionaryfiscalconsolidatio

nthecurrentaccountbalancecouldevendeteriorate.4.Fiscalpolicyandfinancialcrises•Whenacapitalaccountcrisishits,fiscalconsolidationisusuallyunavoi

dablebecauseexternalfinancingdriesup.•Iffiscalproblemsaretherootcauseofthefinancialcrisis(lossofconfidence),fiscalconsolidationisnecessaryt

oregainmarketaccessandlowerthecostofborrowing.•Iffiscalproblemsarenottherootcause,fiscalcontractionmaybecounterproductive;fiscalexpansion

maybeneededinstead.15MMFAchievingmedium-termfiscalcredibility•Fiscalrulestoconstrainfuturebehavior•Reasonablemulti-yearspendingceilin

gs•Fiscaltransparency;openandaccountablebudgeting–Establishapolitically-independentfiscalagenttomonitorfiscalpolicymaking–

Providethepublicwithcomprehensiveinformationonthestateofpublicfinances•DisciplinedbudgetpreparationandexecutionMMF16MMF17Fiscalpolicyhasplayedasig

nificantroleinsupportingdemandsincethecrisis,withoff-budgetandLGFVspendingbecomingespeciallyimportantcountercyclicaltool…FiscalPolicytoReduceVul

nerability18MMFFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalvulnerability•Acountry’spublicfinancesmayappearsound,butmaybev

ulnerableifunderlyingweaknessesthreatenitsfuturefiscalpositionandlimitthegovernment’sabilitytorespondtofis

calpolicychallenges.•Examples:–Debtsustainability–Contingentliabilitiesanddebtstructure–Fiscalrigidities–Emergingfiscalpressures,e.g.,demographic

changes19MMFDebtsustainability•Publicdebtissustainablewhenthegovernmentcancontinueservicingitwithouttheneedfora

nunrealisticallylargefuturecorrectiontoitsrevenueorprimary(non-interest)expenditurepath.•Marketexpectationsarei

mportanttoo—governmentsthatareabletoassuremarketsaboutfuturefiscalpoliciesmaybeabletomaintainlargerlevelsofd

ebtthanotherwise.20MMFMMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthasrisentoabove45percentofGDP…22MMFHistorical40Baseline43354045505560

6570200520072009201120132015Baselineandhistoricalscenariosi-rateshock46Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Interestrate

shock(inpercent)China:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)23MMFChina:PublicDebtSustaina

bility:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Growthshock44Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Growthsho

ck(inpercentperyear)PBshock51Baseline435935455565200820102012201420162018Primarybalanceshock(inpercen

tofGDP)andnopolicychangescenario(constantprimarybalance)Nopolicychange24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP

)Combinedshock50Baseline4335455565200520072009201120132015Combinedshock2/30%depreciationBaseline43contingentliabilitiesshock50354555652008

20102012201420162018Longertermfiscalpressures•Demographicchanges(mainlyagingpopulations)willposeincreasingburdensonpublicfinancesofmanyde

velopedandsomedevelopingcountries.Source:Heller(F&D2006)Oldagedependencyrate(%)25MMFFiscalPolicyforGro

wthandPovertyReduction26MMFFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreduction•Asoundfiscalpositioniskeytoachievingmacroeconomicstability,whichiscritica

lforsustainedgrowthandpovertyreduction.–Perceptionsandinvestorconfidence•High-qualityfiscaladjustmentcanalsomobilizedomesti

csavings,increasetheefficiencyofresourceallocation,andhelpmeetdevelopmentgoals.–Governmentsaving–“Fiscalspace”27MMF

Mobilizingandallocatingresources•Economicgrowthdependsonaccumulatingphysicalandhumancapital,whichinturnrequiressavings.

•Asprivatesectorsavingsareoftenlowindevelopingcountries,fiscalpolicycanplayacentralroleinmobilizingresourcesbyraisi

ngrevenueandreducinglessproductivespending.•Butthemobilizedresourcesmustbeinvestedproductively.–Publicspendingshouldbedirectedtoareasw

iththehighestsocialreturnandshouldcomplement,ratherthancompetewith,theprivatesector(e.g.,health,education,andpensionsinChina).28MMF29MMFHighsocia

lsecuritycontributionratesareanimpedimenttodomesticrebalancinginChina…Fiscalspace•Fiscalspaceintheimmediate

term–Needtofindresourcestofinancepressingexpenditurestoday–Linktofiscalsustainability•Fiscalspaceinthemediumterm–Needtoensurethatfuturebudgetaryre

sourcesarenotexhaustedbygovernmentexpenditurecommitments,inordertohavescopetorespondtounanticipatedfiscalchallengesMMF30